Human-level AI coming in 2026?

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicts that advancements in artificial intelligence could reach "human levels" by 2026.

Speaking to podcaster Lex Fridman this week, Amodei compared the recent advances in artificial general intelligence (AGI) to different levels of education.

“We’re starting to get to PhD level, and last year we were at the undergraduate level, and the year before, the level of a high school student,” he said before predicting that AI could exceed human capabilities within the next couple years. He mentioned that various factors could hinder these progressions, including data depletion, restrictions on cluster scaling, or geopolitical disputes affecting microchip manufacturing.

Still, “if you believe the straight line extrapolation” of current advancement rates, “we’ll get there in 2026 or 2027,” though there might be some “mild delay,” he said. Amodei also raised worries regarding the possible consequences of artificial intelligence reaching human-level capabilities., saying, “Things that are powerful can do good things, and they can do bad things,” before adding, “With great power comes great responsibility.”